The first casual warning I give to all readers is that the only reason I wrote this was purely for the fun of it. This is not meant to be an end-all be-all, and I hope that you get a kick out of a difference in opinion and appreciate the thought that went into this ranking. The upcoming season is impossible to predict, but it’s worth a shot, right? Millions of people buy lottery tickets every year, with insanely smaller odds of winning than guessing the ranks of the 20 best racing drivers in the world. That being said, I really think there’s at least 20% merit to this list, and it definitely became harder to rank in the bottom 10. Nobody wants to see any driver in the bottom half of the leaderboard, let along the bottom five. I’ve ranked this list purely on speculation, and hopefully some of these predictions ring true. I’ve listed these in descending order as I expect them to turn out in the driver’s standings and will also post a constructor’s list later on before the season opening. hopefully you enjoy this list!

1: Max Verstappen – Although Red Bull will be hit with the wind tunnel and CFD reductions for the 2023 car development (thanks to some clear rounding errors), Adrian Newey revealed that there were major aerodynamic upgrades that could’ve been applied to the 2022 car, but when RB found themselves so far ahead and nearing the 2022 cost cap, they figured they would hold off. Basically, Red Bull still has some “Draw 4” cards up their sleeves for next year. Also, Max is in peak form.

2: Charles Leclerc – Having Vasseur at Ferrari is a huge win for Leclerc already, as Vasseur basically raised Charles when it came to his racing career. This is going to be a much more powerful duet, and hopefully Fred brings a little bit more personality, charisma, and accountability to the Ferrari team this year. You can bet the gap between Leclerc and Verstappen will close up slightly this year.

3: George Russell – While I would love to place Checo or Sainz here, I can’t help but feel like Red Bull’s aerodynamic direction and Ferrari’s new Team Principal both favor their teams’ obvious “number one drivers”. Russell beat Hamilton in 2022, and that’s not talked about enough. Even if this was due to Hamilton trying different experimental race setups throughout the season, it then becomes clear that Russell is a favorite for Mercedes’ future, and it’s hard to dislike that. Even Hamilton clearly loves seeing George performing at such a level as himself, and I think Mercedes will favor George if they don’t get their setup right at the beginning of the season this year.

4: Sergio Perez – While we love seeing the “Mexican Minister of Defense” play the favorite sidekick on the grid, I think Leclerc and Russell will be better suited to compete for podiums and wins this season. Red Bull’s development direction in 2022 involved moving the center of gravity/ braking further back in the car, giving Verstappen a car that performs more go-kart-ish with a loose end that he can handle. It was at this point in 2022 when we saw the two Red Bull drivers diverge in terms of pace and performance, and I think Red Bull will continue to head this direction in the next year. Ricciardo will be nipping at Perez’ heels, and the pressure will definitely be on Checo to work with the continued setup or adapt his own.

5: Lewis Hamilton – Hamilton’s great. Nobody’s denying that. But the lack of direction on Mercedes’ part means they’re going to scrap the 2022 development direction to try something new in 2023. If it works, we could possibly see both silver arrows higher in the standings, but if not, it will be a hodgepodge repeat of 2022: Two of the best drivers on the grid trying to correct a car that’s full of fundamental flaws. The Merc engine is super competitive, but it needs the correct floor and aero package paired with it to give these two the best chance at podiums. After two seasons of difficulty and being beaten by his teammate, Hamilton will consider retirement if he feels Mercedes can fill his seat in 2024 with someone who’s an adequate replacement and a great teammate to George.

6: Carlos Sainz – Carlos is a great driver, and capable in the Ferrari. But he’s up against some massive competition, and I don’t see him closing the gap to Leclerc, even with Ferrari’s new management. He will still be a smooth operator.

7: Fernando Alonso – I think this will be the biggest surprise of the year. With his confidence high, and in a team that’s making big, long-term investments and plans for the future, it will be a close shootout between Alonso, Norris, and his former teammate, Esteban Ocon. Alonso’s 2022 results were heavily hampered by the most insane unreliability streak in the 21st century of F1. He proved in 2022 that he is still capable of great results and that, with the right machinery, he could be a potential championship threat, contending for podiums and possibly even a win.

8: Lando Norris – I think Norris has what it takes to achieve better results, but he’s not got the machinery to do so. McLaren will likely struggle least in terms of management transitions, given that Zak Brown is so involved in overseeing the company’s racing teams as well. That being said, Norris won’t have the car that will allow his true talent to shine through, relative to the top 3 teams. It will be close between him and Alonso.

9: Esteban Ocon – Ocon has some great talent, and Alpine has been putting in a good shift, but reliability will be his undoing. Unlike the other 4 “Engine Manufacturing Constructors – Ferrari, RB, and Merc”, Alpine hasn’t had a solid track record. Theoretically they should be making that list a clear “top 4”, but instead is proof that just because a company manufactures the entirety of its car in-house, it doesn’t necessarily equate to a stronger car. Reliability problems will still plague Alpine.

10: Oscar Piastri – Ironically, I think that the biggest storm to emerge from the driver’s market will translate to the track and won’t meet vaunted expectations. Piastri may struggle a bit more than Norris with the Mclaren, which could suffer a bit from losing Seidl. Getting comfortable quickly in the Mclaren will be key for Piastri, which might be a challenge if his driving style doesn’t mesh with the car, much as it didn’t for Riccardo in 2022.

11: Pierre Gasly – Gasly is a great driver but will feel less familiar and comfortable in the Alpine than Ocon. Alpine will insist that they don’t favor one driver over the other, but I think that will leave them with a compromised car that isn’t optimized for either driver.

12: Valtteri Bottas – Bottas has been thriving at Alfa Romeo, and the pairing of him and Zhou makes the team’s lineup arguably the most consistent on the grid with the fewest mistakes made by the drivers. If the team can get a grip on their handful of reliability issues this next year, both drivers could be higher on this list.

13: Nyck de Vries – Of all the rookies on the grid, Nyck will have the most success in his first F1 season. The Alpha Tauri will still have its issues, but he’s a great drive that even Toto Wolff has suggested would be a great replacement for Verstappen or Perez in the future, should Max retire or Checo lose his seat. It’s hard to assess rookies, so it’s anyone’s guess. He’ll outperform Tsunoda, which will put pressure on the Japanese driver.

14: Zhou Guanyu – One of the cleanest rookie seasons in quite a while, Zhou became an unexpected fan favorite after receiving initial harassment and criticism in the 2022 pre-season for being a political diversity card backed by big money and a desire to boost the Chinese F1 market. However, his performance was staggeringly consistent, and he made very few mistakes throughout the year, pegging him as one of the most consistent drivers of the season. Zhou has proved that he can handle an F1 car and deliver great consistency, and now he will be under pressure to step up to the next level and add performance and points to that consistency.

15: Nico Hulkenberg – Hulk is back, and no doubt the Haas will shine brighter in 2023, thanks to Guenther Steiner suggesting the team will actually hit the cost cap – meaning that theoretically the team will spend as much as the big 3 at the top (looking at you, Red Bull). This is huge, and the momentum gained in the 2022 season will carry forward. Hulkenberg will be keen to prove that he’s not just a great one-off replacement driver, but that he deserves a seat with a long-term contract in a team showing great potential.

16: Yuki Tsunoda – Tsunoda, the new team’s leader will struggle under pressure, having rookie Nick De Vries out-performing him on occasion. Tsunoda’s inconsistency will find him outside points-scoring positions more often than not. Alpha Tauri has a pretty polar opposite HR program to that of Red Bull, giving a struggling driver the benefit of the doubt for another season or two than some consider deserved. However, Tsunoda is going to feel the pressure of possibly being replaced if his performance doesn’t merit a seat in 2024.

17: Kevin Magnussen – 14th. Kevin will continue to shine at Haas (Which is a funny thought, given that Haas F1 has historically been the caboose of the grid). The team’s impressive 2022 season will carry that momentum forward, and the team will see even more improvements in the 2023 season. Hulkenberg will push him more than Schumacher did in 2022, and there’s a bit of a chance that Kevin will be outscored by his teammate.

18: Lance Stroll – Lance is not a bad driver. He’s put in good results in the past, but he’s not one of the greats. The performance gap to his teammate will widen with his new teammate, Fernando Alonso. There’s not much to anticipate based on Stroll’s performance, considering his seat is pretty secure with Lawrence Stroll’s ownership stake in the team. But a long gap to Alonso may force Aston Martin to question hanging onto him.

19: Alex Albon – Albon picked up where Russell left off in 2022, putting in great results and hauling home points in a car that definitely didn’t deserve them. Albon will continue to show brilliance in a car that, unfortunately, will still handicap his championship results.

20: Logan Sargeant – Logan may prove to be a much better driver than his predecessor, Nicholas Latifi, but he will have immense pressure weighing on his shoulders as the only American driver in a sport growing immensely in his home country. I really want to see more brought out of the Williams car, and hopefully a new team principal and upgrades early on in the year prove this prediction wrong, but it’s going to take a major overhaul to push Williams’ competitive level above that of any of its competitors.

I really think the forthcoming 2023 season is going to be full of surprises and stories. We have 3 new rookies in play this year, and lots of teams determined to shake up the pecking order, not to mention 5 new team principals this year. With such a techtonic grid of personnel, I can’t wait to see how things turn out. What do you think of my list? What are your thoughts on the 2023 F1 driver’s championship? Be sure to let me know and leave a comment!